Senatorial drumbeats are mounting as the inquiry begins into whether or not the CIA missed the signs leading up to the Egyptian street protests. The link below to a February 5, 2011 NPR story examines this question and also adds some support to Rhami Kouri's contention in the link from the previous post that, alarmingly, some people within the US intelligence community were surprised by the uprising. Khouri, on the contrary, asserts that the seething warning signs of intense instability were present for some time.
The NPR story makes clear that many analysts within the CIA were aware of this instability, but that the trigger for street protests is far more difficult to discern and predict - the precise place where intelligence work becomes an art rather than a science. The story goes on to provide a far more nuanced analysis of the CIA's role in analyzing such events, which provides a nice counterpoint to those Senators simply seeking to blame someone for failing to predict the enormously complex wave of Egyptian protests.
The difference, explains Gen. Michael Hayden, is between a secret and a mystery. The events in Egypt had triggering mechanisms that were mysteries, not secrets that someone failed to discover through intelligence gathering.
Lastly, the NPR story also raises the extremely troubling issue of Egypt's involvement in the CIA's program of extraordinary rendition. Although briefly treated, several important points are made regarding the future relationship between the US and Egyptian intelligence agencies (note that Omar Suleiman, Egypt's former head of intelligence, is now the vice president).
Link to the NPR story:
Egypt Unrest: Didn't U.S. Intelligence See It Coming?
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Friday, February 4, 2011
Rami Khouri on the Egyptian Crisis
I would highly recommend the following February 3, 2011 interview with Rami Khouri to anyone who is looking for an interesting perspective on the Egyptian crisis and its implications for the broader Middle East. Khouri, a Palestinian-Jordanian, is a keen observer of the region with a particular knack for placing current events within larger historical perspectives and narratives.
In this piece, I was particularly interested in his observations about the roots of the Egyptian crisis and how they have been misunderstood. He also provides an exceptionally cogent explanation and analysis of the Muslim Brotherhood and its role in Egyptian society. Lastly, he frames these ongoing protests in the Arab world as one of the most significant moments in modern Middle Eastern history. What we are witnessing, he argues, is the third epic movement in the modern history of the region. His analysis, although perhaps debatable, is nonetheless well articulated and immensely helpful. Some critics have taken issue with his reliance on post-colonial analysis in examining these protests, but his perspective is essential in gaining a thorough and complete understanding of these events and their implications for the wider Middle East.
Link to the interview with Rami Khouri on "Here and Now":
Commentator Describes ‘Unraveling Of Post-Colonial Order’ In Arab World
In this piece, I was particularly interested in his observations about the roots of the Egyptian crisis and how they have been misunderstood. He also provides an exceptionally cogent explanation and analysis of the Muslim Brotherhood and its role in Egyptian society. Lastly, he frames these ongoing protests in the Arab world as one of the most significant moments in modern Middle Eastern history. What we are witnessing, he argues, is the third epic movement in the modern history of the region. His analysis, although perhaps debatable, is nonetheless well articulated and immensely helpful. Some critics have taken issue with his reliance on post-colonial analysis in examining these protests, but his perspective is essential in gaining a thorough and complete understanding of these events and their implications for the wider Middle East.
Link to the interview with Rami Khouri on "Here and Now":
Commentator Describes ‘Unraveling Of Post-Colonial Order’ In Arab World
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