Secret, evangelical Texas ranch meeting aside, Mitt Romney, not Rick Santorum, will be the conservatives’ choice for 2012. Be they religious conservatives or the plain garden variety. Republican voters, outside the Texas ranch inner sanctum, are smart enough to rally around an electable candidate. The bottom line is that they fear a second term President Obama more than they fear a President Romney.
Religious conservatives, and some pundits, predict that evangelism will trump political common sense. This wisdom suggests that Romney’s Mormon faith makes him unpalatable to Christian evangelicals and that the South constitutes some crazed religious demographic that only votes with their Bibles. Like most caricatures, those who view the South Carolina Republican primary as a hallmark in another Great Awakening have misinterpreted the cyclical history of previous Great Awakenings. The awakened ones are actually now headed back to slumber in American politics.
The religious right still wields considerable power within the Republican Party, but less when compared to years past. The evangelical tent of the Republican Party has to enlarge its footprint as the South Carolina primary approaches, and this is where pragmatism will defeat evangelism.
Yes, religious conservatives are unhappy with their options, but they usually are. Remember, in 2008 they even failed to unite behind Mike Huckabee, a model religious conservative candidate. Now, the evangelical kingmakers have chosen Rick Santorum at their Texas ranch conclave. The problem is that conservative South Carolinian voters could care less. Romney is still leading in most South Carolina polls, and he will prevail on primary day. Why? Because evangelical kingmakers have, for the moment, run their course in American politics, usurped by political pragmatism. Mitt Romney is electable. Rick Santorum is not.
Both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama allegedly pose an existential threat to religious conservatives – the primary difference being one of party. Many pundits and evangelical conservatives predict Romney’s demise in South Carolina, pointing to his precarious conservative credentials and his Mormon faith, perhaps the biggest elephant in this race. But for the religious right, Obama poses a far greater threat than does Romney.
While they express misgivings about Romney, they become downright hysterical in arguing that another four years of Obama will undo the republic. Given that level of anti-Obama rhetoric, it’s hard to imagine that Republicans of any stripe will rally around more conservative, but unelectable, candidates like Gingrich or Santorum. Conservative voters are savvy, and they will put aside their gripes with Romney in order to defeat Barack Obama.
South Carolina will reveal this pragmatism and demonstrate Romney’s potential strength in a general election against Obama. Republican strategists know that early consensus around a candidate strengthens their chances in the general election. A good showing for Romney among religious conservatives will allow him to wear their mantle in the general election. And his moderate tarnish will stand him in good stead as he drifts toward the center. If Romney can pull in religious conservatives, independents and conservative democrats disillusioned with Obama the Republicans may have a winning strategy in November. We’ll see, though, how Romney’s moderate credentials stand up to withering attacks that are sure to come from the left.
Romney’s conservative credentials have been in tatters ever since the race began, evidenced by the lack of enthusiasm from the right for his candidacy. And his clumsy attempts to prove his credentials have been unconvincing. But this will likely turn out to be less catastrophic and may well be highly advantageous come November. His move to the center will be easier and more believable than with previous Republican candidates. With the country so evenly split, voters who form the center-right and center-left voting block will decide the 2012 presidential election.
Mitt Romney is on a roll. Despite scorn from his opponents about his career at Bain Capital, Romney pulled off a significant political victory in the New Hampshire primary by finally getting close to his poll numbers. This may go a long way toward quieting critics who argue that he cannot connect with ordinary people. His significant support from the forty percent of New Hampshire voters who are registered independents gives Romney bragging rights.
But on Super Tuesday, and on general election day next November, candidates must have successfully moved toward the center in order to win. Romney is well on his way to pulling off this trick. Republican voters know it. Even if this message had not yet breached the barbed wire at Brenham Ranch in Texas by last weekend.
Sources
Fournier, Keith A. “Brenham Ranch Surprise: Rick Santorum Endorsed by 150 Evangelical Leaders.” 15 Jan. 2012. Catholic Online. Web. 16 Jan. 2012.
Gail Russell Chaddock, “Evangelical leaders try to unite behind Rick Santorum.” 14 Jan. 2012. The Christian Science Monitor. Web. 15 Jan. 2012.
Hagerty, Barbara Bradley. “Evangelical Leaders Struggle To Crown A Candidate.” National Public Radio. January 13, 2012. Broadcast.
Halloran, Liz. “In Search Of An 'Anti-Romney': Guide To The Players.” National Public Radio. January 13, 2012. Broadcast.
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